"We get caught up in the monthly volatility of the data, and we need to step back, " she said.

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Ministry officials emphasized that monthly volatility in the data was common, as was frequently the case in 2012 when strong months would be followed by weak, and vice versa.

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Although the annualised monthly volatility of European share prices was around 12% in January, it has shot up to over 27% in the latest quarter, and to over 35% for the euro area alone.

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Salient has a solution, but it raises another problem for individual investors: The firm adjusts its holdings monthly, based on trailing two-year volatility.

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Crude oil looks to be a more conservative play for 2011, and will trade in line with the monthly economic statistics unless political events cause a sudden volatility on the upside.

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One common yardstick of volatility is standard deviation, which uses annualized monthly returns over time as a baseline.

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The extent of the volatility over the next four months is evident by the wide ranges on the monthly chart.

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