On Thursday the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank noted that factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region continued to slow in June with its index posting minus 17.1 compared to 15.6 in May.
The index for finished minus food and energy surged .4%, the largest increase since last July.
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The economic-expectations index fell to minus-16.9 in June from 10.8 in May, against expectations for a reading of 2.8.
Still, the market also got a weaker-than-forecast economic report from Germany, as the ZEW sentiment index fell to minus 25.5 in August from minus 19.6 in July.
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Since 1926, according to our research, the index had returned between minus and plus 1% only three times before, most recently in 1970.
The closely watched Philadelphia Fed Business Index surged up from minus 10.7 in November all the way up to plus 8.1 in December, with big increases in both new orders and shipments.
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The index tracks the percentage of optimistic investors minus the percentage of pessimistic investors, and can swing between a theoretical maximum of 100 and minimum of -100.
Also, in the one 5% plus inflation surge that was in this data set, the CRB index produced a nominal compound return of 1.58% and a real return of minus 3.32%.
What I do know is that for the limited data set I have, the CRB index produced a nominal compound return of 0.77%, a real return of minus 2.16%, a standard deviation that is twice that of Treasuries, had a twelve month period with a loss of 48.74% and had a 27 year period with a negative compound return.
The Philly Fed index of activity was predicted to rise in June from 3.9 but came in at minus 7.7.
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The index, which reflects 20 U.S. metropolitan areas, was at a low of minus 15.8%, down from minus 15.3% in April.
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