Sagarin, who has one of the older and more respected prediction equations in the business, said a year or two of success does not mean a model will continue to foretell the outcome of the tournament correctly.
As we move into this phase, does it mean that this model will continue over the long run?
Here is what I mean by such a model.
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"We didn't mean to invent this new model, " says Graham, who at 45 has sandy hair and a youthful earnestness.
To produce an image, you need to start off by building a life-like model, no mean feat with something as intricate as a fly or an ant.
When we look at broadcasting, we're looking at the model and saying it's been that way for 50 years, but does that mean it's still the right model.
But to coexist with the free market does not mean that they have embraced the model.
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Yet one successful Benelux country, he says, does not mean that bancassurance works as a general model.
Which does mean of course that an attempt to model the economy as something either in or approaching equilibrium is really rather odd.
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So launching a Kindle model in 2011 at near to no hardware margin does not mean that those one is selling 10, 11 months later, just before the launch of the next model, are also being sold with no hardware margin.
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And the move to installing fiber and manufacturing its own hardware mean that the company is diversifying its business model to include more direct payments from users and not be wholly dependent on advertising revenues to fund all of this infrastructure.
But good profits aren't always the best thing in Ricks' model, which draws on the principle of mean reversion.
This does not mean that every child must be schooled, drilled and disciplined to make them model citizens at this young age.
They mean regulation, inflexible labour markets, European, or even worse the German social model which he blames for the continent's high unemployment.
All the other features are perfect too, and the current model is even better than my originals: extra-long cinch-down gauntlets mean no snow can get inside, even in the deepest powder.
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