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"When the marginal investors have to start selling at a loss, that's when we'll see others jump in, " he says.
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We believe management is running the business essentially at break-even as a matter of design while the company reaches for ever-expanding market share, and we think marginal investors will continue to lose patience with this strategy in the medium term.
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The marginal producers and investors are distorting the markets, and their crashes will come first in a very ugly way.
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"The marginal demand from investors in the developed world would overwhelm anything that is going on domestically in India, " he said.
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While it is true that many investors have regrettably funded marginal managers, our belief is that though the early 2000s suffer from seemingly poor returns, history would show that these will improve over time as those vintages continue to mature.
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Yet that may be because investors prefer immediacy of execution to marginal price improvement.
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For one, profits attract imitators, and as this is being read a lot of marginal producers are entering the commodity space, funded by lemming investors desperate to avoid missing out on the boom.
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"As you build more and more companies, your bar for investing continues to rise and rise" because investors can't spend a lot of time on marginal business, he says.
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Today the people in the US who face punishingly high marginal tax rates are blue-collar and middle-income workers, not investors and entrepreneurs.
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So despite having a drug in front of the FDA, AVEO is currently a negative return for its venture investors (the ones who have held large portions to date) or at most a marginal win (1.3x) for those that exited in 2011 (looks like Flagship has exited, whereas MPM, Highland have been holding at least some of their positions).
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