If you can make a reasonable assessment, then you can figure out whether the potential for reward justifies buying the security.

FORBES: Investing 101: Avoid Companies Where You Can't Assess The Risk

Determine your current financial situation. (2) Figure out where you want to be at given times in the future. (3) Make reasonable assumptions about key factors like pay raises, savings, spending levels, inflation, insurance coverage, investment returns for different kinds of assets and the like. (4) Run the numbers over time. (5) Fiddle with the assumptions to cover any shortfall or, if financially set, to reduce risk.

FORBES: Bedlam