In casting a vote, each voter has to make a calculation about how their views are most likely to become policy.
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Although the theory that describes the interaction of quarks and gluons is on a firm conceptual footing, it is so complicated in practice that it can take years to make a single calculation of something like the shape of a proton even using the most powerful supercomputers.
No one is yet prepared to make such a calculation, but researchers are moving in that direction.
Individuals are expected to make a similar calculation: The penalty for defying the individual mandate and not carrying insurance is far lower than the premium costs.
Consistent with this, there is a case for restrictions on the way in which cigarettes are advertised and sold: because cigarettes are addictive and dangerous, children are at risk of being hooked by a bad habit before they are old enough to make a reasoned calculation of the odds.
If you are happy with the earnings growth implied in that fair value calculation, then you can still make a return in the stock, just not excess return.
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That is a calculation that Keynesians cannot be bothered to make.
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Changing the figure to take account of the cycle would make more sense, but it would introduce a complex and disputable new calculation, with countries arguing endlessly over precisely where they were in the cycle.
Above all though, perhaps David Cameron's calculation was that his defiant Downing Street news conference would make him look like a leader at a time when his own party has been questioning how long he should carry on in the job.
Such a calculation is polluted by what's called survivorship bias--the ability of fund vendors to make bad funds disappear.
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