Its immense shale-gas potential might make it even less willing to pay up, inclining it to depend less on pipeline gas and to take the risk that it can smooth out ebbs and flows through spot markets.

ECONOMIST: Shale gas should make the world a cleaner, safer place

Oil and gas still make up two-thirds of Russia's exports.

ECONOMIST: Russia's presidency

He says he wants the private sector to make up 70% of non-oil-and-gas GDP by 2020.

ECONOMIST: Turkmenistan's plight