We expect 1.7% growth in real personal consumption expenditures in the four quarters ending September 2008 even under our soft-landing scenario, below the 2% four-quarter low in the 2001 recession (see graph and further discussion in the attachment.) In recent years, we predicted and explained the resilience in U.S. consumption growth in terms of job prospects and the high actual household savings rate.

FORBES: Third Quarter Strength, Stagflation Ahead