Carnival trades at a forward PE multiple4 of 16, with a forecast long-term growth rate of around 16% per year.5 This is an attractive trade off, in my opinion, particularly given the great dynamics of an industry riding the powerful, long-term currents of mass affluence and aging.
The reason for the shortfall: A decline in supply occasioned by the long-term fall in the car accident death rate has coincided with a growth in demand occasioned by aging demographics and breakthroughs in medicine.