And to be sure, labor and infrastructure limits may slow the rate of growth compared to past years, but projections by JPMorgan Chase suggest that North Dakota will continue to enjoy GDP growth two to three times the national average for the next few years.
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The main conclusion from this demographic work is that, barring a new increase in female labor force participation or a significant increase in the growth rate of the population, these demographic factors point towards a further decline in trend growth of employment and hours in the coming decades.
Historically, the margins have risen over the years since the sales growth has outpaced the rate at which the fixed costs (such as labor and occupancy costs) have increased.
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The CBO also says that "the major health care legislation enacted in 2010 will reduce the labor supply slightly" and that the likelihood of higher individual tax rate will deter growth.
In fact, if you ask me what the level of employment will be five or 10 years from now, I would probably ignore demand factors and focus on supply factors such as the expected growth in the labor force due to demographics and factors affecting the labor force participation rate.
This means a low 7%ish headline unemployment rate, a stabilization in the labor force participation rate (which may have already begun in April) and accelerating GDP growth.
People, most journalists included, just assumed that the large decline in the unemployment rate on weak employment growth was caused by discouraged workers dropping out of the labor force.
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Both Ben Bernanke and vice chairwoman Janet Yellen have made it clear QE will remained tied to a substantial improvement in labor conditions, which should at least include continued payroll growth and an improvement in hiring, the quit rate, and real GDP.
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In notable economic news this week, the Labor Department reported higher than expected job growth in October with 171, 000 jobs added, despite the unemployment rate ticking higher to 7.9%.
In contrast, 40 years from now Europe's economic growth rate is expected to fall 40%, due directly to the shrinking size of both its labor force and its internal market.
Weakening U.S. labor and factory activity has begun to drag on Mexican growth after the economy grew at a more than 4 percent rate in the first half of 2012, although exports rebounded in July.
At a time when unemployment is stuck above 8% and hiring is lagging in many fields, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is predicting that jobs for computer scientists will increase by 19% between 2010 and 2020, a healthy growth rate.
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