Under KMV's model, the typical default probability is 15% in Indonesia and 18% in Thailand.

FORBES: Default-risk bookies

If KMV's model works and the market correction has nearly run its course, junk bonds are now a buy.

FORBES: Default-risk bookies

If KMV's model works and if you think the market correction has nearly run its course, junk bonds are a buy now.

FORBES: Default-risk bookies

"You can sometimes look at a slumping equity price and see trouble coming, but until KMV's model came along it was impossible to quantify the risk, " says Campbell.

FORBES: Default-risk bookies

As for Japan, KMV's model says that if the government lets market forces take their course, 3 of Japan's 19 largest banks -- it won't name names -- have at least a 2% chance of defaulting on their debt over the next year.

FORBES: Default-risk bookies

As for Japan, KMV's model says that 3 of Japan's 19 largest banks -- it won't name names -- have at least a 2% chance of defaulting on their debt over the next year if the government lets market forces take their course.

FORBES: Default-risk bookies