Closer to home, KMV ran a what-if scenario recently, plugging in a one-day 25% plunge in the Dow.

FORBES: Default-risk bookies

For the U.S., KMV ran a what-if scenario recently, plugging in a one- day 25% plunge in the Dow.

FORBES: Default-risk bookies

What distinguishes KMV's default-warning system is that it doesn't rely on the wisdom of one person or a handful of people.

FORBES: Default-risk bookies

Moody 's ( MCO - news - people ) acquired KMV, the global leader in provision of objective and quantitative credit risk assessment tools.

FORBES: Rating Agencies Should Get A Death Sentence

As for Japan, KMV's model says that 3 of Japan's 19 largest banks -- it won't name names -- have at least a 2% chance of defaulting on their debt over the next year if the government lets market forces take their course.

FORBES: Default-risk bookies

You may think of Singapore as a relatively safe haven, but KMV says the default risk on the debt of publicly traded companies there has shot up -- from a negligible 0.1% almost two years ago to 4.2% now.

FORBES: Default-risk bookies