"But monetary policy was much more expansionary in the 1970s, " says Lutz Kilian, a stagflation expert at the University of Michigan.

FORBES: Magazine Article

But Kilian and others have reexamined the data and come up with a surprising conclusion: Oil prices weren't to blame for stalling the economy.

FORBES: Stagpanic

Loose monetary policy was the culprit, Kilian says.

FORBES: Magazine Article

Lutz Kilian, at the University of Michigan, suggests that unless energy consumption is reduced or new supplies found a full recovery from the financial crisis will push the oil price back to its highs of mid-2008.

ECONOMIST: Commodity prices and global growth

Only if prices are rising because of concerns about a sudden shortfall in supply, such as from fear of a Middle East war, should the Fed be concerned, says Kilian, who admits to the possibility of that.

FORBES: Stagpanic