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The first is IOCs will increasingly get into wets to offset dry shale economics.
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As IOCs repatriate their staff, those with greatest exposure, such as Oman where 64% of production comes from IOCs, will suffer.
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Another interesting realization the people at Nomura made had to do with what percentage of production came from international oil companies (IOCs) in different MENA countries.
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While the IOCs have registered their support for industry reform and many of the measures laid out by the PIB, the effects of the new fiscal regime on shareholder returns are substantial.
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Like it or not, IOCs still have lucrative (some would say larger) unconventional oil and gas plays they can go for in North America, Russia, East Africa, Australasia and even distinctly conventional MENA and Caspian regions.
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The quality of Nigerian crude means that IOCs have little alternative but to continue to operate in the country, where competition has increased in recent years with the entry of IOCs from China, India and South Korea.
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In turn, the government is betting that with the Chinese and Indians especially keen to lock in access to hydrocarbon reserves wherever they can, any investment slack from the IOCs will be picked up by its Asian partners.
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Expectations of sustained upward pressure on global energy prices have presented the Nigerian government with an opportunity to extract greater returns from existing operations while betting that IOCs will still be interested in investing to meet rampant market demand.
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