According to initial estimates published on January 30th, output grew at an annual rate of only 0.6% in the last three months of 2007 (see article).

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This raises the risk of a ricochet effect, in which a slowdown in one country leads it to reduce its imports from others, which squeezes their output, and hence their imports, magnifying the initial fall in demand.

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The Office for National Statistics, which produces the figures, did not have access to the industrial output, which includes energy production and mining, when it made its initial second-quarter GDP estimate.

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Output growth slowed to an annualised rate of 2.4%, according to the government's initial estimate, down from a 3.7% rate during the first quarter.

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