Mortgage approvals are a good indicator of short term trends in the property market, and have risen this year in line with recovery in completed sales.
It maintains the mechanical aspects of Sell in May, avoiding emotional input, but incorporates a simple and well-known short-term technical indicator, MACD, to identify whether the market is still in correction mode when the entry date arrives in the fall, and whether it is still in rally mode when the calendar exit date arrives in the spring.
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It should be noted that even if the December lows were broken, the long-term positive action of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator would still keep my long-term trend analysis positive.
Job losses will remain a lagging indicator, keeping inflation at bay in the near term.
We scored the top three countries (5, 3, and 1 respectively) per term and added these into a simple indicator of innovation interest.
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The indicator is now only slightly above its long-term average.
This is one advantage over the Conference Board's leading economic indicator, which conceals useful information by combining longer- and shorter-term indicators in a single measure.
Although bullish earnings reports from the likes of Intel ( INTC) are going to move the market in the short term, the reaction in the days to follow are the real indicator for me.
But on May 15th the short-term yield curve turned positive for the first time in 16 months, usually an indicator that the market thinks enough easing has taken place.
Although the immediate GOP response was generally more muted than one might expect, that should not be taken as an indicator that conservatives and others are going soft on their criticism of the President going into the second term.
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