Once the index reaches 100, it is more likely that the black swan event will occur than not occur.

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In any event, there is nothing in the GDP numbers that would put in question the Shift Index analysis.

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The index was predicted to ease by less than two points from 5.3 in July, but in the event a sharp downturn in the expectations gauge between both private and institutional investors caused a dramatic slump in the index to negative 13.5 and the lowest reading since September 2009.

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