The fifth trend, which I call the New Peace, involves war in the world as a whole, including developing nations.

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After decades of control by European hands, developing nations including Brazil, Mexico and India believe the reins of the International Monetary fund, which oversees exchange rates and negotiates international debts, should be handed over to a non-European nation.

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Conversely, developing nations, including much of Africa and parts of South America, are viewed as particularly at risk.

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On that view, it is a good time for the world's big consuming nations (including developing countries such as China) to build up buffer stocks, which provide the only real protection against short-term supply disruptions caused by embargoes, wars and the like.

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But Bush chose to accentuate the positive, noting favorable remarks about the concept of developing a missile defense by several nations, including Britain, Italy, Hungary, Poland and Spain.

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