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If inflation continues to decline in the months ahead, as the government expects following four months of monetary and fiscal measures designed to curb credit and cash flow, then the Central Bank will likely keep the Selic rate unchanged barring any surprises in demand in the third quarter.
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However, if this inflation rate continues beyond the next couple of months, it will start to push the yearly inflation number higher.
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If inflation in America continues to rise, the Fed will have to raise rates abruptly, and by more than if it acts now.
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If tuition continues to significantly outpace inflation, funding her college is a steep hill for her parents to climb.
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And if Fed policy continues as-is, inflation should a relatively low risk for some time.
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If the euro continues to wobble, expect more bad news on the inflation front.
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With regard to the availability of budgetary resources, if the U.S. economy continues its current unspectacular rate of growth and inflation remains subdued, then the nation will generate at least three quadrillion dollars in value through 2065.
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It is possible to see the outlines of an agreement, where the bank accepts the need for some kind of inflation targeting, along with the understanding that it will not raise interest rates soon if the government continues to push reforms and tackle spending.
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But if this trend in private bank money creation continues, it does augur for higher rates of monetary inflation, especially, as Chairman Bernanke suggested at Jackson Hole in August, if aided and embedded by a reduction in the rate of interest the Federal Reserve pays banks on those excess reserves.
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