Does NASA have an estimate of the probability that the Earth will be hit by a potentially hazardous object (such as an asteroid) in the next 100 years?
Basically, this would be like a developer who is building homes along a fault line and only tests the durability of the construction up to a level 4.0 (light) earthquake when there is a decent probability that an 8.0 (major) may hit.
All four appear to have the potential, however small the probability, of achieving outsized 10-20x returns should the deal hit all the downstream milestones.