Historian and sociologist Rodney Stark finds that the historical pattern fits the current one.
If consumers follow their historical pattern, the current deleveraging cycle should last another 4 to 7 years.
The United States has clearly not escaped the historical pattern of long and slow recoveries after financial crises.
Another consistent historical pattern may also be of assistance in this second year of the current Four-Year Presidential Cycle.
But he concedes that a coming generation of savers--kids who grew up texting on cellphones--may finally change that historical pattern.
If the historical pattern holds, it could win 130 seats in the lower house, and control 390 via its partners.
So can we be sure November, December, and January will follow their historical pattern of usually being the most positive months of the year?
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Breaking from the historical pattern, financials remain laggards in this rebound.
The pattern has been clearly reflected in the stock market, which saw its historical pattern of making its gains in the winter months and suffering corrections in the summer months even more pronounced in 2010 and 2011.
That certainly has been the historical pattern.
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But whereas neither the April-July correction in the U.S., nor the decline in August, carried the U.S. market down to the bottom of its similar formation, the Japanese market followed the historical pattern of the formation, declining in a bear market until it was down 26%, and at the potential support at the bottom of the formation.
Dashed lines convey information that Dash picks up via its historical traffic pattern information provider Inrix.
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Prechter cites a lack of demonstrable pessimism, valuations that remain high by historical standards and an incomplete wave pattern down from market highs.
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