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If the yield on these assets declines to around 2% on greater regulatory scrutiny, especially on higher margin businesses like derivatives, this reduces our price estimate by about 2%.
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One reason is that with higher oil prices, the petroleum derivatives that Ecuador imports to make petrol for domestic use are now costlier too.
ECONOMIST: Ecuador's economy
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Futures and other derivatives trading is a much higher growth and higher margin business for exchanges.
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Given the expansion of the derivatives market, the volatility is clearly higher now than it has been in past market declines.
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Late Wednesday, Moody's Investors Service said it might downgrade Ambac's all-important triple-A financial-strength credit rating after the company forecast significantly higher-than-expected losses from insuring credit derivatives, many of them tied to subprime mortgages.
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Late Wednesday, Moody's Investors Service said it might downgrade Ambac's (nyse: ABK - news - people ) all-important triple-A financial-strength credit rating after the company forecast significantly higher-than-expected losses from insuring credit derivatives, many of them tied to subprime mortgages.
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In mathematically complicated ways, market interest rates are built into the pricing of derivatives like puts and calls, and with higher rates the terms of a structured note can be made more appealing to the naive investor.
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"Despite the Fed holding firm on the U.S. stimulus plan and continued optimism from the Asian markets overnight, investors still need Cyprus to deliver the goods with a credible plan B before we see another hike higher for equities, " said Mike McCudden, head of derivatives at Interactive Investor.
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So, higher capital standards, some limits on leverage and prohibition of derivatives with no apparent social benefit may have done 90 percent of the good that needed doing with many fewer unintended consequences that are bound to come out of a 2000 page document that no single person has read yet.
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