If China can lower inflation, and we see some higher consumer spending, then that can bring us back.
FORBES: 2012 Outlook: U.S. Stocks Could Rise Next Year, But Might Be Bumpy
This is because changing demographics mean that an ever-higher share of consumer spending is being done by the affluent over-45s.
Better jobs numbers and higher consumer confidence would mean more spending and a willingness by the consumer to finance larger ticket items through credit.
FORBES: For Manufacturing Sector, Europe's Loss Is America's Gain
Labor shortage is good news for consumer incomes (at least for those consumers whose labor warrants the higher wages) but only if consumer spending rises at the same or faster pace than consumer incomes, and productivity growth is the same as or exceeds wage growth.
Yet higher taxes will also dampen consumer spending, sending growth lower still.
It said a dramatic drop in consumer spending, higher online sales and retail space expansion were to blame for the high vacancy rate.
We see that construction spending fell by 20 percent, for instance, which is a sizable number - but that was offset by the fact that consumer spending was higher than expected.
One issue of concern has been rising energy prices, and the subsequent impact higher utilities bills could have on consumer spending.
Add to the carnage the threats of tightening credit, more business failures, higher unemployment and a shriveling of consumer spending, the key driver in America's GDP.
Overall, the outlook for the Eurozone economies is negative: EU economists are forecasting a 0.3% contraction in its economy, which means a reduction in business and consumer spending and even higher unemployment.
"Continued investments in the business helped to generate higher consumer, small business and corporate card spending while expanding the use of our products online, " saidKenneth I.
And he warned that higher living costs were likely to restrain consumer spending to a far greater extent than tighter lending conditions as a result of the credit crisis.
In China fixed investment (on a GDP-consistent basis) is running more than 20% higher than a year ago, real consumer spending in urban areas is up by almost 11% and car sales have surged by 70%.
Lastly, significantly higher oil prices would impinge already-strained consumer spending habits and lead to economic decline.
FORBES: Today's Equity Dilemma: Micro Versus Macro Investing
Mixed signals to a Fed concerned that higher gas prices and food prices will constrain consumer spending.
Higher spending on utilities does not signal consumer confidence the way purchases on household goods, such as new appliances or furniture, typically do.
The deterioration in consumer spending in turn pushes unemployment higher, creating new budget shortfalls and deeper austerity measures on countries like Spain, Italy and France.
The BRC says consumer spending is being hit hard by higher inflation, job losses and low wage growth.
Higher house sales encourage more spending on furniture and consumer appliances.
ECONOMIST: Is the economic stimulus too much of a good thing?
Elsewhere in economic news, consumer spending in France rose by a higher-than-expected 2.1% last December, but the numbers appeared to be boosted by the rush among the French to buy cars ahead of the government's planned phaseout of its car-scrapping scheme this month.
Temporary factors, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan, appear to account for only some of the recent weakness in economic activity.
The spending and higher labor costs led to massive consumer and corporate demand that drove inflation.
With two-thirds of GDP derived from consumer spending, these monthly numbers need to be higher to keep the economy chugging.
With discretionary spending surging higher, many investors are looking to consumer plays, such as those in the vacation space, for big gains.
FORBES: Carnival Faces Choppy Waters After Stranded Ship Fiasco
Even though households are now in better shape, analysts caution that consumer spending could stall if Congress fails to prevent higher taxes from taking hold next year.
Euan Murray, from Barclays Corporate Banking, said higher sales over the Christmas period failed to counter the restrained consumer spending seen through most of the last quarter of 2012.
That suggests consumer spending will be lower and the cost of capital higher than before the crunch.
If higher gas prices and lower income levels represent a new normal, consumer spending is in trouble and with it, the fortunes of both Wal-Mart and the U.S. economy at large.
WSJ: Rich Karlgaard: Wal-Mart's Sales Problem��And America's
Slightly higher than expected inflation data suggests that some of the pull-back in spending may be a result of higher prices that are being passed to the consumer.
FORBES: Consumer Spending Hit Speedbump In May: Markets Responding With Resilience
Jack in the Box trimmed the fat in its second quarter, helping it to overcome higher costs for food and packaging and same-store sales that were sapped by softening consumer spending.
应用推荐