In the 1980s, however, those same farmers were crushed by the Soviet grain embargo, double-digit interest rates, a worldwide recession and high energy costs.

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Officials fear that if China becomes dependent on grain imports, it would be vulnerable to a grain embargo at times of international tension, perhaps led by the United States.

ECONOMIST: China

Dr Feng counters fears about a grain embargo, by pointing out that any land used in other food production could fairly quickly be re-converted to grain in an emergency.

ECONOMIST: China

The country's food crisis has its roots in atrocious farm productivity, the high international price of grain, and an embargo on much food aid because of North Korean belligerence towards South Korea in recent years.

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The stage is set, Grice says, for a permanent step up in grain prices, just as oil prices jumped following the 1973 Arab oil embargo.

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