That represents not only Glucophage, but several other drugs, including a sustained-release version called Glucophage XR.
His analysis indicates that patients get a new Glucophage prescription only every 152 days.
Such copycat competitors are also on the horizon for Glucophage and BuSpar, an anxiety drug.
The company's sales are dominated by its Glucophage franchise, which treats diabetes, and by Pravachol, a cholesterol-lowering drug.
" says Butler, "And how much will they have been able to cannibalize Glucophage users to Glucophage XR users?
Glucophage, part of Bristol's lucrative diabetes franchise, and BuSpar, an anxiety drug, will suffer the same fate this year.
The usual defense of this is to switch patients to new versions of the drug, including Bristol's Glucophage XR and Glucovance.
Bristol-Myers Squibb's Glucophage and similar drugs are taken by 6.5 million patients.
In any case, only a tiny percentage of Glucophage users are children.
Glucophage, a diabetes treatment, is likely to face such copycat competition soon.
Bristol-Myers Squibb has been hurt by competition from generic substitutes for proprietary drugs like Glucophage (diabetes medication), Taxol (cancer treatment) and BuSpar (antidepressant).
If Bristol manages to switch users from one version of the drug to the other, it will be able to keep most of the Glucophage revenue.
Exercise and diet are incredibly powerful--one two-year-old study showed that lifestyle changes treat diabetes better than Glucophage, a drug made by Bristol-Myers Squibb (nyse: BMY - news - people ).
Blockbuster cancer treatment Taxol has been eroded by generic competition in the U.S.--although international sales are strong--and many fear that the company's Glucophage diabetes franchise could also be eaten by generic drugs when flagship Glucophage IR goes off patent.
Although there are some compelling arguments for Glucophage XR (it has fewer gastrointestinal side effects and needs to be administered less often), it will be difficult to switch them over if they only get a new prescription every five months.
Late Friday, Miami-based Ivax (nyse: IVX - news - people ) said it had received tentative approval to sell generic versions of diabetes drug Glucophage, despite brandmaker Bristol-Myers Squibb (nyse: BMY - news - people ) trying to hold things up with discussions regarding the generic drug's label.
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