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We believe that Disney has superior pricing power to News Corp and therefore our margin forecast for News Corp stands at a lower value of around 40%.
FORBES: News Corp Could Be A $31 Stock If Margin Improvement Continues
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We forecast the fee percentage to remain at around this value in the years to come, with increasing competition putting pressure on the fees charged.
FORBES: Three Key Drivers To BNY Mellon's $27 Stock Value
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To forecast the indices we used the current Zillow Home Value Index value for May, which we released almost three weeks ago, the April Case-Shiller home indices numbers and the national percentage for foreclosure re-sales in May.
FORBES: Connect
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Although the currency has appreciated since mid-March, renewed weakness is possible, and the effect of a collapse in the value of the rupiah (not our central forecast) would be to lower the spending power of most Indonesians.
ECONOMIST: Indonesia's robust economy continues to grow
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This forecast is in line with the trend in the Zillow Home Value Index reported in the Q3 Zillow Real Estate Market Report.
FORBES: By Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow Chief Economist
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Ignoring secondary affects (as mentioned below), the independent impact of the community forecast would increase our price estimate by 39%, although still leaving total value below current market price.
FORBES: Go Ahead, Try To Find A Way That Netflix Is Worth $187
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But for your Uncle Al living in Boca, if he is paying 20% over the value of Treasury bonds at par today to get interest payments of just 1.6%, he is going to get next to nothing in real income after inflation, and he is going to watch the value of his bond plummet once interest rates start rising again, forecast to occur by 2014.
FORBES: When Flight To Safety Is Risky
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To get an idea of this potential reduction in value, an increase of just 5% to our base manufacturing cost forecast can reduce our SunPower stock price estimate by almost 15%.
FORBES: Polysilicon Price Pop Casts Shadow On SunPower's Profits
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Even though our value estimate is only 5% above the market price, our valuation is sensitive to our forecast for profit margins.
FORBES: Disney's Multi-Platform Distribution Deals Can Lift Margins And Outlook