He had successfully fused his own party with that of the formerly neo-fascist Gianfranco Fini to create a single movement of the right, the People of Freedom (PdL).
Even if the president did plump for an election, the polls suggest Mr Berlusconi would free himself of Mr Fini only to become a prisoner of the Northern League's leader, Umberto Bossi.
But he was on his way: within six months Mr Berlusconi, after inventing his own party from scratch, had ganged up with Mr Fini and the leader of the soon-to-be-separatist Northern League, Umberto Bossi (who has more of a Duce's whiff about him than Mr Fini does), to thrash the assorted left and centre in a general election.
In the long term, no doubt, Mr Fini still aspires to the PdL leadership.
ECONOMIST: Silvio Berlusconi under fire: The sultan and the vizier | The
After a miserable showing by Forza Italia in the European elections on June 13th, and in municipal and provincial ones two weeks later, Mr Fini felt emboldened to settle scores.
Some even speculated that Mr Fini might be preparing to establish a new centrist alliance.
ECONOMIST: Silvio Berlusconi under fire: The sultan and the vizier | The
But he would be vulnerable to Gianfranco Fini, the foreign minister, who is also deputy prime minister and leader of the second-biggest party on the right, the formerly neo-fascist National Alliance.
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His one-time friend and now political enemy Gianfranco Fini called on him to resign at the weekend, saying "the government must understand that it is not credible, even if it wins in parliament by a vote, because with a majority of one vote you can survive but you can't govern".
Negotiations for cabinet slots to replace the Fini faithful will begin with the Catholic moderate, Pierferdinando Casini.
Mr Fini and his followers are due to decide on November 7th whether to leave the government.
But others, including the post-fascist National Alliance's leader, Gianfranco Fini, whose party is set to join Mr Berlusconi's in a coalition government if the left loses the election due by next spring, suggested that the boss had mistackled.
Not even Mr Fini's friends deny that his lurch to the left is partly aimed at winning him the succession.
Mr Fini's misgivings no doubt owe something to the fact that the biggest single category earmarked for the axe consists of subsidies for the poor south, whence his party draws much of its support.
But by making himself more acceptable to the voters at large, Mr Fini risks alienating the PdL bigwigs who will choose Mr Berlusconi's successor.
But it is not yet ready to fight an election, and Mr Fini knows that if he brings down the government he could be depicted by the prime minister as having betrayed the right and destabilised the country at a time when Italy, and the euro zone in general, needs a steady hand.
Opinion polls show that most Italians agree with Mr Fini: Mr Berlusconi, they said, was wrong to say what he did.
Mr Berlusconi quit as prime minister after Mr Fini's party, the National Alliance, threatened to follow the Christian Democrats by pulling out of government.
That would not be easy if he were linked to old school, professional politicians such as Gianfranco Fini of the National Alliance or Pier Ferdinando Casini, a Christian Democrat.
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The party has since abandoned its roots to become a broader, more moderate movement and Fini is regarded as one of the more pro-European ministers within the often euro-sceptic Berlusconi coalition.
Not surprisingly, Mr Fini's rivals on the Italian right are much less keen to co-operate now they sense he is invading their territory.
Future and Freedom for Italy (FLI), the fledgling political party Mr Fini launched only months ago, split in two, sending votes back to Mr Berlusconi.
Although happy to back progressive causes, the 57-year-old Mr Fini is no disciple of the free market.
But Gianfranco Fini, the post-fascist leader, is against referendums that could lead to reforms of hiring rules and pensions, though he wants a new electoral law.
In contrast to Mr Berlusconi, who cultivates the image of a maverick, Mr Fini makes great play of respecting Italy's judiciary, parliament and constitution.
Other supporters of the prime minister are calling for Mr Fini, the principal cause of Mr Berlusconi's weakening grip on office, to resign as speaker of the lower house.
His government's use of procedural devices to cut short parliamentary debate has even been criticised by his ally, Gianfranco Fini, former leader of the National Alliance and now speaker of the lower-house Chamber of Deputies.
ECONOMIST: Italy and its prime minister: The Berlusconisation of Italy | The
Yet on September 14th an associate of Mr Fini declared that Mr Berlusconi's former deputy prime minister would never leave the party he helped to found, let alone set up a rival.
ECONOMIST: Silvio Berlusconi under fire: The sultan and the vizier | The
Gianfranco Fini -- a former party ally -- lashed out, accusing him of a lack of attention to the economy and structural reforms that Italy needs.
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