In terms of output, although growth forecasts for this year remain above 3.5 percent, uncertainty around the external scenario and signs of a domestic slowdown continue.
This reflects a protracted period of weak external demand with consequent strongly negative effects on exports and increasing uncertainty about high-growth emerging countries.
The overall external balance will depend heavily on capital flows, and the slow pace of recovery may be amplified by political uncertainty, thus pushing more capital out of the country.