With the Eurozone expected to shrink a further 0.1% this year, after contracting 0.6% in 2012, European policymakers will have to work to achieve more symmetrical adjustment shared between core external surplus members, namely Germany, and peripheral deficit countries, Kraemer argues.

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In time, those adjustments should cut both the U.S. external deficit and China's surplus.

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Guillermo Perry, the World Bank's chief economist for Latin America, says Chile is better placed than any other country in the region to absorb external shocks, thanks to its well organised budgetary institutions, prudent fiscal management (a surplus every year since 1989) and tight banking supervision.

ECONOMIST: Chile

Brazil's new president, Lula da Silva, said the big spending cuts he announced this week, aimed at raising the government's primary surplus (ie, before debt-service costs), would help the country survive a coming external crisis.

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