Experience suggests that export revivals are led by highly productive industries that already export a lot, rather than less productive industries regaining old markets.

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"We used to export a lot to overseas markets, " he said.

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Rather, a balanced expansion should require America to narrow its trade deficit: manufacturers will have to export a lot more, seize domestic market share from imports, or both.

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Sovereign wealth funds and countries like China who export a lot more than they import and need a place to stash their excess capital have likewise been glad to lend me some cash.

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Oh sure, the actual export is a lot higher than that.

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Shale, along with new finds of conventional gas, will allow many more countries to produce their own gas and make available gas for export from a lot more places, many of which are less difficult to deal with than some oil-producing countries.

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The Asian countries are going to have to export like crazy, and at low prices, to create current account surpluses, and they will import a lot less, too.

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