Of course, the financial crisis explains this massive forecasting error, but the study finds that relatively little was due to fiscal stimulus programmes in response to the downturn.
BBC: Debt and the crisis: How did governments get it so wrong?
Of greater alarm was the fact that 5% of the consumers in the study had an error that, when corrected, placed them in a different credit risk tier and could result in paying a lower interest rate on their loans on automobiles, homes or credit cards.
After all, at least he did not repeat his mistake after an 11-year-long opportunity to study and learn the fatal error of his ways.
DeBakey VA Medical Center, Houston, Texas and assistant professor of medicine at Baylor College of Medicine who has wrote several studies on diagnostic error, says that while the Hopkins study confirms previous research, malpractice data provide a limited picture.
Although the MIT study does not give margins of error, the 2.6 minute average difference in waiting time surely falls within a reasonable margin of error.
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But it would be a mistake to conclude that online courses fulfill the same role in a person's life as a college education, just as it would be an error to equate four years of high school with some online study and a GED exam.
The FTC study found that 26% of consumers had a material error on at least one of their three credit reports.
In a preliminary study he conducted in 22 post-stroke patients using error-type training, he found 15 consecutive days of intense treatment yielded as much improvement as what patients got from intense conventional treadmill training two to three times a week in 10 or more weeks.
Instead, to judge by the most comprehensive study on the reliability of forensic evidence to date, the error rate is more than 10% in five categories of analysis, including fiber, paint and body fluids. (Meaning: When the expert says specimen X matches source Y, there's a 10% probability he's wrong.) DNA and fingerprints are more reliable but still not foolproof.
Study after study shows that their accomplishments are just a little less valued - and they have less margin for error.
The Administration's inability to argue more effectively that the stakes preclude both of these options seems to have reflected yet another error: the growing influence in its ranks of those like former Secretary of State James Baker and the bipartisan Iraq Study Group he co-chairs with former Rep. Lee Hamilton.
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