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Bank loan funds cite historically low default and high recovery rates, but many fail to cite nuances that imply that past performance may not predict future performance.
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If Argentina's default is followed by recovery, the government's candidate, whoever he may be, may also favour renegotiation.
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Indeed, says Mr Tepper, default is essential to recovery.
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To see how this affects funding costs, look at credit default swaps, which typically assume a 40% recovery rate in the event of default.
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There has also been questions about why including the recovery image by default.
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Leading Democrats argued that the consequences of failing to raise the debt ceiling, which could force the government into default and upend the fragile economic recovery, make the stakes much higher than during the tense negotiations to keep funding the federal government.
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CreditSights, a rating agency, says that the European implied default rate, assuming a 20% recovery rate, reached 25% at the end of last year but has since fallen to 15%.
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Economic indicators here do not point to recovery, and the threat of default in Europe grows stronger.
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On a break-even basis, this is basically saying that you would start losing money if you started to realize more than a 13% annual default rate for the next 5 years, if you had lower than the historical recovery rates of 40 cents.
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Coming when investors already are concerned about the strength and duration of the economic recovery, and the cost of the fiscal policies that led back to growth, Dubai World's default risk may be only one of the risks that market actors were underpricing.
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