Retailers also continue to experience a higher average probability of default, based on the Sageworks probability of default model, a predictive statistical model for the credit analysis of small or privately held companies.

FORBES: Private Retailers' Sales On The Move

The patchy credit histories of subprime and low-documentation borrowers made it hard to model default rates accurately.

ECONOMIST: Rebuilding the banks

Under KMV's model, the typical default probability is 15% in Indonesia and 18% in Thailand.

FORBES: Default-risk bookies

Imagine if rather than developing the next CDO or Credit Default Swap instrument, they developed a model that optimized health rather than devastated the economy with financial instruments few can understand.

FORBES: It's WW III and Big Brains are Working on Small Things

Why can't we build on a real-world model that keeps everything I create by default, and only throws away changes?

ENGADGET: Entelligence: Stains on the sleeve of my operating system

"Any model you build that lets you identify really good stocks by default allows you to identify really bad stocks, " says Scavone, a Louisiana native who has an M.

FORBES: What Goes Up ...

Ongoing relationships with community banks have also helped Sageworks develop a statistically based model predicting the probability that, within a year, a business will default on a loan.

FORBES: Two signs private companies are stronger

If lenders plugged these numbers into the same model that they used in 2007, they would calculate that Greece could only avoid default if it could devote 17.2% of GDP to debt service.

FORBES: Earth to Greece: It's Over

Trader Joe's figured out that trying to give people everything is a lousy business model: It overwhelms customers, clutters stores and undermines the shopping experience, causing some customers to default to "no" since they can't make up their minds.

WSJ: When Simplicity Is the Solution