He says many stock-fund managers "take the quite reasonable approach that treats currency as a cyclical risk" that washes out over time.

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But many worry that, at a time of widespread crisis, such pro-cyclical rules risk imposing too much austerity too widely, thus darkening the spectre of recession and making it even harder to balance budgets.

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You get a sense there's been a more than cyclical change in risk appetite amongst the community, which is why the savings rate has gone up to historical highs and in businesses, boards have changed their attitudes to risk.

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In a notoriously cyclical industry, the risk that they might fall is clear.

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The ECB effectively addressed contracyclical vs pro-cyclical issues while reducing credit risk and aiding the banks in tightening their balance sheets.

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In the meantime, a glance at the charts of economically-sensitive stocks and indexes tells you all you need to know about the near-term outlook for risk and expectations of cyclical growth.

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Some items, like perishable goods or "hot" cyclical fashion items, carry the additional risk of becoming stale or obsolete before they can be sold.

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"We risk getting caught in the cyclical trap so common in our industry, " he tells them, his words amplified via closed-circuit TV to employees around the world.

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But part of the explanation could also be cyclical, notably abundant liquidity, low borrowings by companies and high risk appetites.

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If and when oil exports and trade imbalances next reach a cyclical peak, it may make sense to park surpluses in low-risk assets until the boom subsides.

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