Remember, the corporate world learned how to make itself rich this cycle through stock options, which held down the salary expense line.
Remember, America's corporate world learned how to make itself rich this cycle through stock options, which held down the salary expense line.
Most studies support the evidence of a significant relationship between the presidential cycle and the stock market.
FORBES: Presidential Election Cycle Suggests Stocks Are A Buy
We think the worrisome headlines are now priced into the shares and as the cycle turns, the stock should rebound nicely.
Every stock market cycle and every asset class bubble, people get sucked by a good story at the top and sell at the bottom in a panic.
Because when asked, central bankers will repeatedly cite the diversifying power of gold as a major reason to own it. (See this French central banker speaking in 2000, for instance.) Unlike other metals and commodities, gold is not tied to the economic cycle, nor the stock market.
Lynch was a fearless long-cycle investor, buying a stock like Fannie Mae when nobody wanted it, and holding on.
Only after completing a 50% decline had the stock market crescendo cycle been completed, and almost no one had anticipated just how bad things would become.
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Sometimes it may be best for companies to hoard cash at the top of the stock-market cycle and use it in the next trough to buy back shares at a discount.
These ideas are based on my assumption that we are in a stock market down cycle that will continue for some time, as well as on the growing possibility of a new recession.
You stay with a good acting stock for its full cycle, maybe 5 to 10 years.
So, obviously the presidential cycle has a big influence on the stock market.
Each stock has its own repetitive cycle of yield associated with its valuation.
The end of the tightening cycle could bode well for the Brazilian stock market and the popular iShares MSCI Brazil exchange traded fund.
Another argument for the stock is the timing of the housing cycle.
That creates an ugly cycle: as financial markets fall, so do their stock values, and their tumbling shares encourage further selling.
See: adelaw61.blogspot.com for more commentary why Apple stock is in a bubble phase of its life cycle.
That in turn usually results in the economy being overheated, and the stock market being over-valued again, and the cycle repeats, with the next administration then allowing those excesses to be corrected in the first two years of its term.
Road-building, stock-grazing and fire suppression have disturbed the natural life cycle of the woods, which are now clogged with young growth.
The cycle work points to April 19th as the target date for a peak in stock prices.
Why, because this uncanny 16 month cycle pinpointed the market highs in 2000 and 2007, preceding major declines in stock values.
FORBES: Uncanny 16 Month Stock Cycle Points To Major Decline
Retailers have also tried to shorten the ordering cycle, so that manufacturers end up carrying more of the risk of managing stock.
But the economy and stock market have been positive for the first two years of this cycle, with substantial stimulus efforts already expended to keep them positive.
FORBES: Big Stimulus Last Two Years May Pervert Usual Presidential Cycle
The stock market performance in 2011 was disappointing for those who follow the Presidential cycle, as the third year of the cycle is generally the best.
Stock-market-wise, as we fade from this emotionally excessive election cycle, there are three things I want you to focus on.
The stock is pricey at a 17 multiple but would pay off if this commodity cycle lasts until Shanghai is built out.
So, the economic recovery is continuing, which bodes well for the stock market in 2011, the usually positive third-year of the presidential cycle but that does not mean investors can relax just yet.
That has not happened yet in this cycle, but I believe the probability is high that continued low interest rates will nudge stock prices up into higher multiples of earnings, assuming earnings continue to grow at a modest rate.
Stock markets sold off, a Credit Suisse report concluded that the commodity super-cycle underpinned by China has drawn to a close, and economists worried about the implications for the already slow economic recovery in the United States.
Normally the economy and stock market perform poorly in the first two years of the four-year presidential cycle, as Washington allows any needed correction of excesses to take place then, rather than risk them taking place in the last year or two before the election.
FORBES: Big Stimulus Last Two Years May Pervert Usual Presidential Cycle
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