Sy Harding , editor of Street Smart Report, cites that last Fed tightening cycle as an illustration of a rule of thumb he calls "Three Steps and a Stumble"--the third rate hike kills the bull.

FORBES: Despite Rate Hikes, Stocks Ready To Bounce

Although the four indicators described above are the most important measures considered by the NBER in developing its business cycle chronology, there is no fixed rule about which other measures contribute information to the process.

CNN: The Business-Cycle Peak of March 2001

Until the coup, Thailand seemed to be escaping its historic cycle of alternating military dictatorships and weak civilian rule.

ECONOMIST: Heading for uncertainty

Even so, his projections showed the current budget moving from deficit into surplus in 2009-10, allowing the rule to be met over the new economic cycle (see chart).

ECONOMIST: Gordon Brown's past imprudence is catching up with him

It may have been imposed because of the impact widescale council borrowing would have on the Treasury's ability to meet Chancellor Gordon Brown's "golden rule" that Britain's books will balance over the economic cycle, she suggested.

BBC: NEWS | UK | Councils want help for equal pay

April's surplus will raise hopes that the Chancellor will meet his "golden rule" of balancing the budget, excluding investment, over the current economic cycle.

BBC: NEWS | Business | UK finances mean boost for Brown