Moreover, there is a simple way more or less to abolish the effect of climate change on yield to date.

ECONOMIST: Climate change and crops

The explained variance of this residual yield by climate is generally about 50%, which is very close to the average I found for corn, soybeans, and winter wheat.

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He went on to state that I did this by simultaneously modelling the technological, spatial and climate components of agricultural yield, instead of separating out technological components first.

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In research that Wolfram Schlenker and I have conducted using the Hadley III climate model, we project yield declines of about 20% over the next 20 years, holding all else the same.

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And many agronomists hold that relying on year-to-year yield changes for modelling exaggerates the damage due to longer climate shifts.

ECONOMIST: Climate change and crops

That said, subtler effects of climate change such as more sudden rains and particularly hot days with disproportionate effects on yield are left out, which might mean the study underestimates the effects.

ECONOMIST: Climate change and crops