When Dave Cavey, his wife and their two daughters moved back from Abu Dhabi last summer, Cavey could not find a job.

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In the past three months, property sales in big cities were 40-50% lower than a year ago, according to figures tracked by Paul Cavey of Macquarie Securities.

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Mr Cavey calculates that the metals industry accounted for 40% of the growth in electricity consumption in 2001-07, but only 16% of the increase in industrial production.

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Paul Cavey at Macquarie has pencilled in a rate of 5.8 yuan to the dollar for 2013, for example, when he expects the current-account surplus to be 3.6% of GDP.

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Paul Cavey, an economist at Macquarie Securities, argues that the discrepancy is explained by the fact that energy-guzzling heavy industries, such as steel and aluminium, bore the brunt of the slowdown last year.

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