Whatever the usefulness of the models, the debate may make reinsurers' attitude to catastrophe risk less reactive.
If reinsurers were mindful of the total catastrophe risk in their portfolio, says Mr Shah, they would be much more prudent.
Although the industry is going through a rough patch commercially, reinsurers are attempting to quantify more carefully their exposure to catastrophe risk.
Officials from the council (CEA) and the White House have kept mum about the report's findings, but we do know it will address the following issues: productivity growth, pro-growth tax policy, the fiscal challenges facing Medicare, catastrophe risk insurance, energy and infrastructure in the transportation sector, currency markets, international trade and investment and immigration.
And yes, they'd co-own the catastrophe and risk being swept out.
Past incidents of aircraft trying to fly through volcanic ash clouds and suffering damage and engine failure led European officials to shut their air spaces rather than risk a catastrophe, said Joe Sultana, an official at Eurocontrol, the intergovernmental body that manages European air travel.
The market had basically held true to its news-driven moniker by falling on bad news relating to the risk of a nuclear catastrophe and then rising when those worries abated in the afternoon.
This would subject the Middle East to the risk of a Chernobyl-type catastrophe.
The risk that the incident could verge towards a massive catastrophe is still there.
You failed to assess risk properly, you failed to plan for a catastrophe.
Traditional responses to the risk of extreme events are of limited value in mitigating risks of a mega-catastrophe.
Risk models for natural catastrophes try to capture two things: severity (how hard a catastrophe might hit) and frequency (how often it might happen).
Even worse, the army might split along ethnic lines, plunging the country into civil war and catastrophe on a vast scale for Nigeria's 100m people and the 60m or so neighbours at risk from Nigerian instability.
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