Capitation means that newly created organizations of physicians and other health-care providers will be given limited dollars per patient for all of their care, allowing for shared savings if spending is below the targets.
There will be no incentive or disincentive for primary care docs to refer or not refer for services- they will just do what they think is appropriate for the patient- but it will not affect their bottom line like it did with HMO capitation back in the 80s.