But if oil starts to flow, Argentina might seek regional support for an economic blockade.
ECONOMIST: Another diplomatic victory for President Fern��ndez
But if oil prices stay high, Edwards can probably afford a misstep or two.
Thanks to high oil prices, America's trade deficit widened in January (see chart), but if oil is excluded, the deficit is shrinking fast.
But if oil prices stayed low for longer, there will have to be a fiscal adjustment, maybe cutting back on expenditures by as much as 3% of GDP.
Russia still had a current-account surplus last year, but if oil prices continue their recent decline, the balance of payments will soon look less healthy and the need for foreign investment may become more urgent.
This looks like a non sequitor considering my weighting in energy, but not if oil futures top out now, my call, but a lady or tiger situation.
FORBES: Where To Load Up, Where To Go Lightly In Russell Growth, S&P 500
Using data from 1973 for developed countries, and a shorter series for developing ones, Mr Jacobsen and his colleagues found that oil-price changes and stockmarket returns are linked but lagged: if oil prices rise, shares do fall, but not right away.
The unfortunate fact is, even if we stop importing oil from anywhere but Canada and Mexico even if we produce every single barrel we consume the price of oil in the U.S. will be set on world markets.
He said if geopolitical tensions escalate that might support gold prices, but only if it starts to affect oil prices.
FORBES: FOCUS: IAEA Report On Iran's Nuclear Programs Not Influencing Markets Yet
But in general, if the oil can be recycled or reused or reclaimed, that happens.
They can try to blame it on declines in the price of oil, but if they had adopted better policies this would not pose a problem.
Others use financial hedges, but these are pricey and can backfire if oil prices drop.
ECONOMIST: Airlines stand to lose heavily should the euro collapse
Investors would be buying Russia not because the dollar is weak, but because oil is strong, even if the two often do go hand in hand.
Raymond Highsmith, executive director of the National Institute for Undersea Science and Technology, a Mississipi consortium coordinating the ship's research, says there are a lot of unknowns about the plume, but that he fears that if it is oil it could harm the small sealife that bigger fish and mammals depend on for food.
Mr Cameron has no such oil lake to call his own, but his support would provide some political cover if Mr Obama decided to release oil from the SPR without backing from the International Energy Agency, the rich-world oil club and supposed custodian of the world's strategic reserves.
But we can only pursue offshore oil drilling if we have assurances that a disaster like the BP oil spill will not happen again.
WHITEHOUSE: Weekly Address: BP Oil Spill Independent Commission
Such shareholders may not blink at the prospect of virgin Alaskan wilderness opening up for oil exploration, but they care if this poses a risk to a company's share price.
But, even if the fund is set up and oil money is used for it, there is still plenty to spend on weapons.
Speaking on board the platform, Greenpeace International's Executive Director Kumi Naidoo said it was "not a question of if an oil spill will happen, but when".
BBC: Greenpeace activists board Russian Gazprom oil platform
Its exports of 1.2 million barrels a day to the U.S. trail those of Saudi Arabia, Canada and Mexico today, but that could change if war disrupts the flow of oil from the Middle East.
People are exposed to that risk not just as consumers but also as homeowners (if they live in an oil town or a cold spot) and as workers (if they build oil rigs or design suvs).
The U.S. may continue to use oil from Canada, Venezuela and other nearby countries if prices are competitive, but the IEA predicts Asian nations will end up consuming 90% of the oil produced in the Persian Gulf.
FORBES: What Happens When America No Longer Needs Middle East Oil?
But Russia has oil, plenty of it, and if Putin promises to play nice with foreign companies, apparently opportunity still abounds.
But the cutoff point could be reached 20 years earlier if oil companies begin producing thicker varieties of oil that require more heat to keep flowing.
Mr Clayton said there were concerns about possible environmental damage if oil started leaking from the vessel, but there have been no reports of any leaks.
Obama has no chance of killing the oil and coal tax breaks, but even if he did, the next guy would probably just add them back (national security, you know) without dumping the tree-hugger stuff.
No oil and gas is flowing yet, but if all goes well in Iraq, Oryx states in its prospectus that it could be handling as much as 300, 000 bpd of oil within five years.
FORBES: Billionaire Returns To The Iraqi Oil Game With New IPO
At last, poverty is falling (though it is still around 40%) in Venezuela but it would be extraordinary if it were not, given the oil price.
But if you look around the world at the devastating impact of oil companies on indigenous populations, you have to concede that Cameron has a point.
应用推荐