Now everyone is seeing black swans everywhere, suggesting that the cognitive bias might have shifted.
FORBES: Christmas, Kurtosis, Fat Tails, Black Swans And Risk Management, Pt. 2
His Black Swans are events which cannot be predicted solely by studying the past.
FORBES: Chaos Theory, Financial Markets, and Global Weirding
And there are the so-called "black swans, " events of low probability and high impact.
American undirected free-enterprise works because it aggressively allows us to capture the randomness of the environment--the cheap Black Swans.
In such a case, treating financial crises as once-in-a-century black swans may not quite capture the whole of the picture.
FORBES: Christmas, Kurtosis, Fat Tails, Black Swans And Risk Management, Pt. 2
Then, beyond a lake populated by flocks of black swans, there is the first sight of the Tongariro mountain range.
Universa is the only hedge funds that has a track record in effectively making money by betting on black swans.
The first sighting of a black swan in Australia, where black swans are, in fact, rather common, shattered that notion.
As part of this, you should be doing some of your own original exploration in obscure areas to trigger your own Black Swans.
What does all of this have to do with Kurtosis (and what is that anyway?) and normal distributions and black swans and risk management?
FORBES: Christmas, Kurtosis, Fat Tails, Black Swans and Risk Management
For more on this topic, see my post Uncertainty And Risk Management: What To Do About Black Swans and my consulting services page.
FORBES: Flexible Corporate Strategy: The Freedom Pipeline Example
Since the financial crisis, black swans have been all the rage.
FORBES: Christmas, Kurtosis, Fat Tails, Black Swans And Risk Management, Pt. 2
In 2007 Nassim Nicholas Taleb created a widely-spread meme and best-selling book on Black Swans, highly unexpected events that carry major scale and impact.
Starting in 1988 the market saw fewer black swans paddling around.
Black Swans are difficult to predict based on their very definition.
However, those black swans do pop up every now and then.
FORBES: Uncertainty and Risk Management: What to Do About Black Swans?
The discovery of black swans in Australia changed their expectations.
The trouble with the Recency Effect is that everyone all of a sudden thought they were Nassim Taleb, orinthological experts on the spotting of Black Swans.
It is a reflection of the resilience (fragility) of the entire system and its ability to withstand shocks and extreme events, or the so-called Black Swans.
It's impossible for the editors of Forbes.com to predict who will change the world, because major changes are Black Swans, the result of accidents and luck.
Whether it is black swans, seagulls or just plain springtime robins, it seems to me that the prudent investors should remain net long of this market.
This is similar to naturalists who denied the existence of black swans because they, or their fellow naturalists whose writings they have consulted, had never seen one.
FORBES: Christmas, Kurtosis, Fat Tails, Black Swans And Risk Management, Pt. 2
Regardless the outcome of the current Black Swans, and whatever else 2011 might throwing in our way: the mission of a marketer is to discover opportunity even under adverse circumstances.
FORBES: A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario
Though the line was widely criticized by many as gobbledygook, those who stopped to think realized he had very pithily summarized entire books by Nicholas Nassim Taleb about uncertainty and Black Swans.
Provocatively, Mr. Taleb defines Black Swans as events (such as the rise of the Internet or the fall of LTCM) that are not only rare and consequential but also predictable only in retrospect.
But we do know who society's winners will be: those who are prepared to face Black Swans, to be exposed to them, to recognize them when they show up and to rigorously exploit them.
He calls them Black Swans, after the philosopher Karl Popper's observation that only a single black swan is required to falsify the theory that "all swans are white" even when there are thousands of white swans in evidence.
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