When a market starts off a quarter above its quarterly pivot it has an upward bias, or if it opens the quarter below it, there is a downward bias for the market you are analyzing.

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In particular, he uses PPP exchange rates, which introduce a very substantial downward bias.

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The market last week was so volatile with clearly a downward bias.

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One cautionary note, however, is that while the HSBC PMI is meant to be seasonally adjusted, it has only risen in June from May in two of the last eight years (on average it has fallen by 0.8 points), suggesting there may have been some downward seasonal bias in the way HSBC runs the numbers.

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