Even with the 7.7-percentage-point plunge, bearish sentiment stayed above its historical average of 30% for the second consecutive week.
Even after accounting for the 10 percentage point drop, bearish sentiment is at its fourth highest level of 2010.
Update if I correct for my math error, then the bearish estimate gave a 700 point downside to the Dow.
The 17.5 percentage point rise in bearish sentiment over the past two weeks shows that many investors are second-guessing their prior short-term outlooks.
FORBES: Continued European Concerns Sink Bullish Sentiment Near Two-Year Low
Market activity seems to point to an outright bearish take on the former, with guarded optimism on the latter.
FORBES: Yankee Spreads Widen As Bulls Reaffix Grip On Stocks
The 21.3-point spread between bullish and bearish sentiment suggests that optimism remains below levels that would be considered excessive, however. (The bull-bear spread has topped 40 points nearly 70 times since 1987.) This suggests that though many individual investors are hopeful, concerns about the economy, interest rates and the federal deficit have not faded into the background.
FORBES: Investors Are More Concerned With Third Quarter Earnings Than Upcoming Elections
As for Shilling, is he still bearish, or have stocks dropped to the point that even he has turned bullish?
There is no reason to get bearish unless we break and close below this at some point.
FORBES: Apple Rots Anew, Facebook Fails Test, Gold Holds Luster
There will be another golden opportunity to buy stocks at some point likely later this year, but right now we are in a bearish leaning wait and see mode.
The key point is that even a mild rebound should surprise markets, which remain overwhelmingly bearish.
This ratio stands just one percentage point shy of an annual acme, pointing to a healthier-than-usual appetite for bearish bets over bullish of late.
FORBES: Options Point To Sam Adams And Johnnie Walker Marching To New Highs, BUD Going Flat
Each attempt at a rally has petered out at a level below previous peaks, and with Thursday's nearly six-point decline in the index, it has now added a pattern of lower lows to its bearish repertoire.
As I noted in a post a few days ago, the company was recently the subject of a bearish screed on Seeking Alpha by investor Whitney Tilson, to which Netflix CEO Reed Hastings responded in a point-by-point rebuttal of his own.
FORBES: Bam! Pow! Barron's, The Journal Take Swings At Netflix
应用推荐