Our baselineforecast looks for a 10-30% house price decline and expects real residential investment to slow to around 12% next year, half of that recorded this year.
At the end of 2008, it is quite plausible that Hungary could have a budget deficit of 3.5% of GDP (although our baselineforecast is 4%) and GDP growth of just 2.8%.
The average of Trefis member forecasts for Content Acquisition Cost (As % of Revenues) indicate an increase from 14% in 2010 to 14.3% by 2016, compared to the flat baseline Trefis estimate of around 13% over the Trefis forecast period.
The average Trefis member forecast shows a more optimistic case than our baseline assumptions predicting that the iPod market share will increase from 24% in 2010 to 30% by 2016, compared to our estimates showing a market share stabilizing around 25%.