The Congressional Budget Office gives its baseline budget projections for fiscal years 2013 to 2023 in its February 5, 2013 Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023.
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Far better would be statutory limits on spending increases and debt as a share of GDP, sequesters that automatically cut spending if Congress exceeds those limits, supermajority rules for replacing those limits, and revisions of the budget baseline so that each year's budget begins at last year's spending levels, not with automatic increases.
Based on what we do know, however, both sides are playing big-time budget baseline games.
The CBO budget baseline assumes the impossible: No increases in discretionary spending for a decade.
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Because the sequester did lower the official budget baseline, restoring cuts will look like a spending increase and may prove awkward for some Republicans.
For instance, when Obama submitted his first budget, he assumed that nearly all of the Bush-era tax cuts and the AMT fix were permanent and thus built into the budget baseline.
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The larger fiscal issue here is whether this spending bonanza will become part of the annual "budget baseline" that Congress uses as the new floor when calculating how much to increase spending the following year, and into the future.
Mr. Ryan retains the current Congressional Budget Office baseline that says revenue will average 18.8% of GDP between 2014 and 2023, nearly a percentage point above the post-1980 average of 17.9%.
Designers are then given an energy budget: the baseline, slashed in half.
Because it turns out that Bowles and Simpson scored their own proposal with yet a third baseline developed by the Congressional Budget Office.
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Different organizations, ranging from the Bowles-Simpson Fiscal Commission to the House Budget Committee, have considered this current policy baseline to be the appropriate reference point, since it measures changes relative to the status quo, rather than the mix of expiring provisions and policy changes that would likely never be implemented.
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At the end of 2008, it is quite plausible that Hungary could have a budget deficit of 3.5% of GDP (although our baseline forecast is 4%) and GDP growth of just 2.8%.
But whichever baseline you prefer, Perry would require massive spending cuts if he is to balance the budget as promised while collecting only 14.6 percent of GDP in revenues.
In 2009 the Pentagon realised that a breach of the Nunn-McCurdy rules on over-budget defence-procurement programmes was inevitable, because costs would exceed the original baseline by more than 50%.
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