Moffett says his base case scenario assumes a 65% probability the deal close.

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In a base case scenario for Paul voters, the Congressman could in theory emerge the winner on the convention floor this summer.

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His base case scenario has Europe surviving this current debacle and devising a fiscal union that makes the euro zone stronger than ever.

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While our base case scenario envisions pricing declines to level off due to the growth of the smartphone segment that should offset the downward pricing pressures, we assess the downside risk here in the event that the current rate of pricing declines continue into the future.

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