Taking into account the circumstances that pertained 65m years ago, Dr Bottke reckons it more than 90% probable that the dinosaur killer was one of Baptistina's daughters.
Critically, the Baptistina family of asteroids - those that were formed when the larger asteroid destructively entered the main belt - were only formed around 80 million years ago.
Scientists believe it would take an asteroid around 10 million years to travel from the main belt to Earth, so "this doesn't give a Baptistina fragment much time to get into a suitable position", said Dr Mainzer.
It is thought to be just over 100m years old (Apollo 17 brought back material from the site, which allowed it to be dated), and it is reckoned by Dr Bottke to be the result of the moon encountering one of the first of Baptistina's progeny to arrive in the inner solar system.