Some very smart forecasters, such as Forbes columnist A. Gary Shilling and newsletter writer John Mauldin, think the U.S. is in a balance-sheet recession.

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In formerly bubble economies, it is largely a balance-sheet recession.

ECONOMIST: World economy

So when the Fed is on an easing course, driving both short-term and long-term rates lower to cope with a balance sheet driven recession, the safe thing for investors to do is to buy bonds, stocks, and commodities, as they tend to move higher with lower interest rates as has been the case in the aftermath of the subprime crisis.

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