Comparing winners and also-rans from within the same countries, to avoid yet another source of bias, Dr Rablen and Dr Oswald found that the winners lived, on average, two years longer than those who had merely been nominated.

ECONOMIST: Is two years extra life

One cautionary note, however, is that while the HSBC PMI is meant to be seasonally adjusted, it has only risen in June from May in two of the last eight years (on average it has fallen by 0.8 points), suggesting there may have been some downward seasonal bias in the way HSBC runs the numbers.

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